I think we will be largely out of the woods by this time next year. With the spread of Covid-19 out of control and the likelihood of soaring bankruptcies, when do you anticipate the pandemic will no longer significantly weigh on the economy? And as I just mentioned, the market is expecting strong growth in the second half of 2021 based on a variety of scenarios that may not play out - including a material reduction in the scale of the pandemic and a sharp rise in consumer and corporate spending. This suggests increasing risks for broad index buyers. Just as falling interest rates push up market multiples, rising interest rates will have the reverse effect. That’s actually likely to happen because we may see interest rates begin to recover and the amount of economic stimulus will eventually slow. One likely outcome: Taxes will likely revert to what they were before the Trump tax cuts, which will help government begin to restore its fiscal health, and this will likely translate to lower after-tax earnings for corporations.Īre you concerned the current market disconnect from Main Street, which has sent stocks rising, could reverse when we see the economy begin to recover? Yes, I do expect more aggressive spending to confront the damaged economy and essential infrastructure needs, which should be good news for Main Street, improvements that may not necessarily bode well for the market. Remember, also, while the Democrats have taken over Congress and the executive branch, the November elections were not by any means a “blue wave.” The Democrats lost seats in the House and President Trump received a large minority of votes. But further out, if anticipated explosive second half growth doesn’t materialize, the markets may begin to turn south. Near term, I would expect the market to continue to rally. How are you handicapping the forward effects of a Democrat-controlled government on the economy and investing? The market is in overdrive, continuing to respond to ultralow interest rates, massive fiscal stimulus, and approved Covid vaccines that are rolling out across the country. I’m not surprised the market didn’t respond to the Capitol riots or the Covid death rates. This year started with the country more ravaged than ever by the pandemic with daily death rates topping 4,000, rioters occupying the Congress, and the Dow climbing 400 points on the same day. In this interview, he speaks expansively about the troublesome division of a roaring stock market and a pandemic-shocked economy, Biden’s win, the Democrat-controlled Congress, and the insurrection at the Capitol -which the market has shrugged off so far. The following decade he held the same position at the Toronto boutique wealth management firm Gluskin Sheff before starting up Rosenberg Research in January 2020.Īs a natural contrarian, Rosenberg is often viewed as being exceedingly cautious as the market has soared with the support of aggressive central bank intervention. President and Chief Economist & Strategist of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research, Rosenberg and his 10-person team provides in depth macroeconomic analysis to 2,600 institutional and high net-worth clients, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices across 40 countries to help them better understand current trends, future shifts in the global economy and financial markets.įor the decade through 2009, Rosenberg was Chief Economist and Strategist for Merrill Lynch Canada and Merrill Lynch in New York. “With the breadth, depth, objectivity, usefulness of his research,” explains Doubleline’s CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, Rosenberg provides “actionable investment advice.”Īnd economic historian Niall Ferguson, who RIA Intel interviewed last year, calls Rosenberg’s work “meticulous with an uncanny sixth sense” that will never be outdone by algorithms in spotting “the next crisis before it engulfs us.” As such, his well-reasoned warnings are worth heeding.īaupost Group CEO Seth Klarman describes Rosenberg’s “willingness to take a contrarian view, always backed up with hard data, valuable for anyone interested in seeing around corners.” Some of the world’s top financial minds hold economist David Rosenberg and his extensive body of work in the highest regard.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |